DRAFT v3.0 · pending witness countersignature · binding before first live fill on 6/30/2026

Falsifiability Protocol v3 — The Convexity Experiment

Doc Ref FP-V3-2026-06 · Ekantik Capital Advisors LLC · Companion to FP-V2-2026-05 (linear track)

Article IScope

This protocol governs the Convexity Experiment — a publicly-conducted, operator-capital live trading exercise on long short-dated options (0–7 DTE) on SPX and single-stock underlyings. It is the convex-instrument companion to the linear-track protocol (FP-V2-2026-05) and runs on segregated capital with independent triggers, gates, and Discord journal.

Article IIThe Expression Layer — when the edge is declared falsified

Realized expectancy across rolling 100 qualified trades drops to $0 per trade — the edge becomes net-negative.

Evaluated continuously; provisional binding from 80 trades, full binding at 100. A qualified trade is one entered and exited under all operative documented rules, unaffected by execution error, platform malfunction, or extraordinary market event. R = premium paid at entry on a single long-option position.

Action on trigger

Immediate stand-down. New entries → zero size next session. Open positions close at next defined exit per the original trade plan. Strategy moves to research-only. Public notification in the Convexity Discord journal within 24 hours.

Re-deploy gate · all three required

(a) Fresh out-of-sample test of ≥ +$50/trade over 50 qualified trades (paper / prop). (b) Written re-derivation of the structural cause of decay. (c) 48-hour cool-off after both.

Article IIIThe Revert Architecture — primary regime-response

Pre-committed automated step-down rules. No exceptions. No renegotiation.

On convex instruments, revert is regime-response: when an entire level’s buffer is given back, the most likely structural explanation is a condition shift, not a single bad trade.

Article IVThe Fidelity Layer — three criteria

Criterion 01 — Per-Trade Attribution Discipline

Every qualified trade receives an operator attribution tag — H2 (process breached) or H3 (variance) — logged before the next entry, against a pre-decision log. H3 is the resting attribution; H2 is the exception. H1 (edge failed) is not an operator attribution and is never applied to a single trade. H1 is system-derived: declared solely by the Expression Gate’s rolling-100 verdict, subject to the Binding Interpretation Rule.

Breach: tag missing at next entry · tag inconsistent with pre-decision log · H1 hand-applied. Threshold: zero breaches inside rolling 100 trades. Verification: witness audits monthly.

Criterion 02 — Rule-Modification Integrity

Zero unannounced or witness-uncountersigned protocol modifications inside the rolling window, per the four-step modification protocol (48h cool-off · written structural justification · witness countersignature · 24h public disclosure). Threshold: binary — zero breaches, period.

Criterion 03 — Daily Routine Adherence

Pre-committed daily filings before market open, including scaling-rules log bidirectional (doublings AND reverts both watched). Threshold: ≥ 95% completion across rolling 30 trading days. Verification: witness reviews monthly.

Article VThree-Tier Stand-Down

TierTriggerResponseResume
T1 Logged breachSingle isolated breach of Criterion 01 or 03.Discord entry within 24h. Witness review within 7 days. Counter resets.Immediate; counter restarts at zero.
T2 Conditions reduced3+ breaches of 01/03 in rolling 30 trades, or sustained Criterion 03 below 95%.Position cut to minimum (1 contract, no scaling) for next 20 qualified trades. Daily filing under witness oversight.20 clean minimum-size trades + witness countersignature.
T3 Full cessationAny Criterion 02 breach, or a second T2 inside rolling 100 trades.Immediate cessation; new entries → zero next session. Witness convenes structural review.Countersigned remediation artifact + 30-day calendar gap + 20 minimum-size trades.

Calibration: first 30 days post-launch (6/30/2026) are observation-only while baseline adherence is established; the Fidelity Layer is binding from day 31. The Expression Layer is binding from day one.

Article VIThe Binding Interpretation Rule

Expression-Gate firings during an active Fidelity T2/T3 breach are interpretation-suspended pending remediation. The architecture refuses to declare an edge falsified from data generated during a fidelity breach.

Article VIIWitness & Verification

The named witness for this protocol is Manish Dharod (default, pending confirmation), holding authority over modification approvals, breach tier classifications, and Stage-1 resumption events. Monthly audit findings published to witness-audits-convex.json.

Operator

Hiren Desai · Founder & Chief Investment Officer · Ekantik Capital Advisors LLC

Signature / Date locked
Witness 01 · Manish Dharod
Relationship · Signature · Date

DRAFT v3.0. By signature, the operator attests this protocol is derived prior to the first live fill on 6/30/2026 and is hereby locked as the governing operational charter for the Convexity Experiment. Witness signature attests only that the modification protocol was followed.