Falsifiability Protocol

A pre-committed operational charter · v2.0

Governing the Ekantik Trading Strategy. Issued by the operator. Witness-locked. Publicly disclosed. Modification subject to a 48-hour cool-off and written justification.

PreambleTwo gates, both binding.

Every credible system pre-defines the conditions under which it admits failure. Most trading operations do not. This one defines two — and runs them in parallel.

The v1.0 charter defined the Expression Layer: the precise statistical threshold at which the operator agrees the edge is dead, the stand-down sequence, and the re-deployment gate (Articles I–IV, retained below). v2.0 adds the Fidelity Layer: the criteria under which the operator admits the published method is not what is actually running — independent of whether the edge itself is sound.

The two layers are bound by a single interpretation rule. The edge cannot be declared falsified using data produced while transmission fidelity is in breach. Both layers are reported on the public page in real time.

Article IThe Expression Layer — Trigger Condition

The operator agrees to declare the edge statistically dead upon satisfaction of the following condition:

Realized expectancy across rolling 100 qualified trades drops to $0 per trade — the edge becomes net-negative.

Evaluated continuously; the trigger is satisfied at the close of the trade that first brings rolling-100 expectancy to zero or below. A qualified trade is one entered and exited under all operative documented rules, unaffected by execution error, platform malfunction, or extraordinary market event.

Article IIThe Expression Layer — Action Protocol

Upon trigger satisfaction, immediately and without exception:

• New entries drop to zero size from the next session, on any account, under any rule, until the Re-Deployment Gate is satisfied in full.
• Open positions close at the next defined exit per the original trade plan. No discretionary acceleration or delay.
• Strategy status moves to research-only (analysis, paper, prop-firm-funded virtual deployment permitted; no live capital).
• Public notification in the Discord journal within 24 hours: the rolling-100 figure that satisfied the trigger, the closing trade ID, and a statement of research-only status.

Article IIIThe Expression Layer — Re-Deployment Gate

The strategy does not return to live deployment until all three conditions are satisfied:

• Out-of-sample test — ≥ +$50 per trade across ≥ 50 qualified trades on virtual / paper / prop-firm capital. Never on member capital.
• Written re-derivation — explaining the structural cause of decay, any logic changes, and the rationale for believing the edge has returned.
• 48-hour cool-off — between satisfaction of the above and any new live entry.

Article IVModification Protocol

Any modification to this protocol — thresholds, window sizes, action steps, re-deployment criteria, cool-off periods, or any Fidelity-Layer criterion — is subject to:

• 48-hour cool-off — no modification enacted within 48 hours of first proposal.
• Written justification — identifying the structural reason, not the recent outcome. Justifications referencing recent P&L are facially insufficient. Must specify which layer the change addresses (operator capacity vs edge improvement) and establish it is not an edge conclusion drawn from contaminated transmission-fidelity data.
• Witness countersignature — at least one named witness signs that the protocol was followed (the witness does not endorse the substance).
• Public disclosure — posted to the Discord journal within 24 hours of becoming operative; reflected in the next-issued version with incremented version and refreshed lock date.

Article VThe Fidelity Layer — Three Criteria

Is the published method what is actually running? Each criterion is pre-committed, observable, binary-checkable, and time-bounded — mapping to a distinct layer of operator fidelity: cognitive, structural, substrate.

Criterion 01 — Per-Trade Attribution Discipline

Every qualified trade receives an operator attribution tag — H2 (process breached) or H3 (variance) — logged before the next entry, against a pre-decision log (rationale, expected outcome, frozen-process checklist). H3 is the resting attribution; H2 is the exception. H1 (edge failed) is not an operator attribution and is never applied to a single trade. "Edge failed" is a verdict about the strategy, knowable only across a sample — so it is system-derived: H1 is declared solely by the Expression Gate's rolling-100 realized-expectancy verdict (the "pattern across N events"), subject to the Binding Interpretation Rule. H1 is locked out at the per-trade level by design.

Breach: tag missing at next entry · tag inconsistent with pre-decision log · H1 hand-applied to a trade (the per-trade verdict belongs to the gate, not the operator). Threshold: zero breaches inside rolling 100-trade window. Verification: witness audits the attribution log monthly.

Criterion 02 — Rule-Modification Integrity

Zero unannounced or witness-uncountersigned protocol modifications inside the rolling window, per the Article IV four-step protocol. Breach: any modification executed without the four steps. Threshold: binary — zero breaches, period. Verification: witness countersignature artifact retrievable per modification.

Criterion 03 — Daily Routine Adherence

Three pre-committed daily components, filed before market open:

• Phelps winning/stress visualization — pre-market rehearsal of both regime endpoints (cooperative and adverse), so neither arrival is novel.
• Predisposal trade-decision visualization — pre-decided responses to the session’s likely decision points, logged before open.
• Scaling-up / scaling-down law visualization — pre-commitment to mechanical response under both regime directions. Scaling triggers are not judgment calls.

Breach: adherence below 95% across any rolling 30 trading days. Threshold: ≥ 95% completion across rolling 30 days. Verification: witness reviews the adherence log monthly; below-threshold weeks require written explanation.

Article VIThe Fidelity Layer — Three-Tier Stand-Down

Calibration. The first 30 days following public launch are observation-only while baseline adherence is established; the Fidelity Layer is binding from day 31. The Expression Layer (Articles I–III) is binding from day one.

Article VIIWitness & Verification

The named witness for this protocol is Manish Dharod, who holds authority over: modification approvals (Article IV), breach tier classifications (Article VI), and Stage-1 resumption events (T2/T3). The witness signs that protocol was followed; the witness does not endorse the substance of any decision or modification.

• Countersignature required for: modifications, T2/T3 resumptions, monthly attribution audits. Artifact retrievable from the public page.
• Classification disputes: 7-day cool-off from initial classification; witness reviews with written rationale; if unresolved, a neutral third-party adjudicator — mutually agreed and named at the time of dispute — decides; decision binding and published in the breach record.
• Monthly audit: findings across all three criteria published monthly to witness-audits.json. Without the monthly artifact, the "witness reviews monthly" claim is itself in breach.